VW Exec: ICE Cars Face the Same Fate as the Horse

The debate over when and whether petrol cars will be banned has dominated automotive media for years. A senior Volkswagen executive has added a different framing to that conversation: one that removes the ban narrative entirely and replaces it with a historical parallel most buyers can understand.

Martin Sander, Volkswagen's board member for sales, marketing, and aftersales, made the prediction in an interview with European media. His point: EVs will replace internal combustion engine cars the same way cars replaced horses in the early 20th century. Naturally. Gradually. Without a government decree that made keeping a horse illegal.

What the VW Exec Actually Said

Sander posed a challenge to journalists in his interview: "Do you know when horses were banned? When was it forbidden to buy horses?"

His answer, of course, is that horses were never banned. Consumers simply found cars more practical, more affordable, and more useful for their lives. Horse ownership declined because better alternatives emerged — not because a government decree made keeping one illegal.

His implication for EVs: the same dynamic will play out. Governments debating ICE bans are, in Sander's view, framing the conversation in the wrong direction.

"How do you convince customers about a new technology if you're only talking about when there will be a date when you are not allowed to use these vehicles?"

His preferred framing focuses on the positive case for EVs — charging infrastructure investment, honest communication about running costs and practical benefits, and competitive energy pricing — rather than the negative case of future prohibition.

Why This Matters for Australian Buyers

Australia has no imminent ICE ban. The federal government has no timeline for prohibiting petrol or diesel vehicles, and the political will for that kind of mandate doesn't currently exist at a federal level. Yet the automotive market is changing fast enough that the ban debate, while not legally relevant in the near term, shapes how manufacturers invest, how dealers position products, and how buyers perceive risk in long-term ownership.

Sander's framing suggests that the EV transition is a slower, more market-driven process than the 2035 European mandate rhetoric implies. For Australian buyers, that means:

Petrol and diesel vehicles will remain supported, serviceable, and resalable for a long time. The transition is real, but it's not an overnight event.

The infrastructure question matters more than the ban question. Charging access — not government mandates — is what determines how quickly Australian buyers convert to EVs. Regional and rural buyers in particular face genuine range and charging limitations that no government deadline changes.

Manufacturers are managing regional differences carefully. VW Australia has explicitly tied its product strategy to customer preference rather than government incentives. That means buyers won't be pushed into EVs before infrastructure and price points support it.

The Hormuz Factor in Australia

What the VW executive's framing doesn't fully capture is the role of supply shocks in accelerating consumer transitions. In Australia, the Hormuz Strait blockade in March 2026 created a sudden and sharp increase in fuel prices, pushing consumers toward EVs at a pace that market dynamics alone hadn't achieved.

EV sales in Australia's SUV segment were up 150 per cent year-on-year as fuel prices spiked. That's a horse-to-car shift being accelerated not by consumer preference alone, but by a geopolitical event that made the economics of fuel ownership dramatically less attractive.

Sander's historical analogy holds in a stable environment. But fuel price shocks, government EV incentives, and supply chain events can compress timelines significantly. Australian buyers need to plan for both the gradual transition and the possibility of sharper inflection points.

What VW Is Doing in Australia

Volkswagen is pursuing a largely EV-focused lineup for European markets while taking a more market-driven approach for Australia. The Volkswagen ID.4 and ID.5 are available here, alongside the incoming Volkswagen Tayron eHybrid. VW Australia has confirmed more electrified products are coming, but the pace will follow buyer demand rather than a mandatory compliance calendar.

The broader VW product strategy involves region-specific approaches. In China, VW offers a range of larger, differently powered vehicles produced with local partners. Those products — some with range-extender hybrid technology — aren't planned for Europe or Australia at this stage.

For Australian buyers, the practical implication is that petrol and hybrid options in the VW lineup will remain available for the foreseeable future. Sander's framing supports that approach: persuade buyers, don't coerce them. That's the commercial approach, and it's also what the VW Australia product calendar reflects.

Carseekers covers the full Volkswagen lineup in Australia with current pricing, availability, and model comparisons to help buyers make informed decisions as the transition evolves.

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